The 5 tournaments between now and April that will reveal who wins the Masters

Matt Cooper 23 Jan 2026

Masters champion Scottie Scheffler holds the traditional green jacket for Rory McIlroy — Rory McIlroy: Finally a Masters winner

Augusta National is on the horizon.

True, winter is still clinging to the trees and spring, when the famous flowers bloom, seems a long way off, but the notion of players walking up Magnolia Drive is one we can use to bolster us through the final weeks of icy cold weather.

This is also a time to consider who might actually win the Masters.

Will Rory McIlroy defend his Green Jacket?

Can Scottie Scheffler maintain his sensational major championship form?

Is it time for Jon Rahm to emerge from his elite level hibernation?

What we need are hints and the schedules provide us with them.

Here are five events that take place between now and the start of April that we can use to create a short list of Masters winners.

1. The Dubai Desert Classic

At first glance a resort course in the middle of the Middle Eastern desert and Augusta National don’t have much in common.

But the Majlis Course at Emirates GC has proved to be a fine pointer towards Masters success.

It was most apparent in 2016 and 2017 when Danny Willett and Sergio Garcia both completed the double.

But there is more to it than that.

The 2011 Dubai Desert Classic winner Alvaro Quiros was the first round co-leader at that year’s Masters – and Bryson DeChambeau completed that double in 2019.

In 2018, Haotong Li won in Dubai and was fourth after 18 holes at Augusta. And 2022 Dubai winner Viktor Hovland didn’t thrive in Augusta three months later but he was another to share the first round leader 15 months later.

That lag also picks up Rory McIlroy who won back-to-back in Dubai in 2023 and 2024 before winning the Masters in 2025.

Even Jose Maria Olazabal is picked up by the delay – he won in Dubai in 1998 and then the Masters in 1999. But get this: the 1999 Dubai Desert Classic was held at Dubai Creek so Olazabal was the last man to win at Majlis ahead of his Masters win, just like Garcia and Willett.

If there is a connection it might be that both back nines offer birdies and eagles so winners at Majlis are primed to attack Augusta National.

2. The Genesis Invitational

It has long been said that Augusta National suits a draw (for the right handers) and it has also long been said that, although Riviera County Club in Los Angles does the opposite (suiting a fade), the two courses are significantly linked by winners.

Fred Couples was a Masters winner and even into middle age a regular presence on the first page of the leaderboard – he also won at Riviera twice.

Three-time Masters champions Nick Faldo also won at Riviera.

So did other Green Jacket wearers such as Craig Stadler, Mike Weir, Adam Scott, Phil Mickelson, Bubba Watson, Dustin Johnson, Jon Rahm and Hideki Matsuyama.

Rahm completed the seasonal double in 2023. So did Weir in 2003 (the man he beat in extra holes, Len Mattiace, had won at Riviera in 2002!). And so did Couples in 1992.

3. The Arnold Palmer Invitational

In the last four years Scottie Scheffler has gone win-no win, win-no win at Augusta.

Does that mean he’s due a win?

Keep an eye on what he does at Bay Hill in March because he has won the Arnold Palmer Invitational there twice – and both times it was in the lead-up to the Masters tournaments that he won in 2022 and 2024.

It’s a small sample but if Scheffler is a winner at Bay Hill he might also become one at Augusta National.

4. The Players Championship

This is another small sample. Actually a very small sample, but it’s a trend that is going for the hat trick.

In 2024 Scottie Scheffler won the Players Championship at TPC Sawgrass … and then won the Masters.

And in 2025 Rory McIlroy won the Players Championship at TPC Sawgrass … and then won the Masters.

Maybe remember as the trophy is lifted in Florida on March 15th.

5. Last year’s majors

Hang on. Does this fifth event fit the remit at the top of the article?

In truth, of course, not quite. But this is a good trend – one that has performed solidly over the last decade – so it’s worth cheating a bit.

What do the last 10 Masters champions have in common? Every single one of them had contended in one of their previous two major championship starts.

Danny Willett in 2016 was second at halfway and finished sixth in the 2015 Open. Sergio Garcia in 2017 had been fifth at the 2016 US Open.

Patrick Reed in 2018 and Tiger Woods in 2019 had been second in the previous year’s PGA Championship.

In the disrupted 2020 season Dustin Johnson was second in the PGA Championship and sixth in the US Open before winning at Augusta late in the year.

Hideki Matsuyama, winner in 2021, had been fourth with 18 holes to play in the 2020 US Open. Scottie Scheffler had also been fourth with 18 holes to play (and finished eighth) in the 2021 Open ahead of winning the 2022 Masters.

Jon Rahm had been third after 54 holes (finishing 12th) in the US Open before his triumph in Georgia, Scheffler’s second Masters was preceded by third place in the US Open and McIlroy’s triumph came after he was second in the US Open.

In short: Masters winners tend to have spent the winter with a major championship itch – and at Augusta they scratch it.