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By Dave John Last updated: 17th November 2010
Denmark's Soren Kjeldsen can shake up the big names this week at 33/1 in the UBS Hong Kong Open, says Dave John.
We have a top-heavy market for this week's UBS Hong Kong Open with big guns Rory McIlroy, Graeme McDowell, Ian Poulter and Miguel Angel Jimenez taking up a big percentage of the market.
If you want to take prices of 14/1 or less, you can argue a pretty convincing case for all four.
McIlroy has finished runner-up at Fanling on the last two occasions and has admitted this week that he has some "unfinished business" in Hong Kong.
"I won't rest until I have the title in my bag," he said and if he is motivated to that extent, then he is going to take some stopping.
McDowell is making a tremendous late effort to reel in Martin Kaymer and win the Race To Dubai following another great display in Singapore.
Kaymer is not playing this week so a high finish could potentially see him take over top spot with one tournament of the season remaining.
"I am still happy with my game and very positive about how I've been swinging," he said.
"I am looking forward to playing on a course I know I can score well on."
If the energy reserves remain good, then McDowell's claim is obvious.
Poulter is fired up and playing well currently too but got a bit upset with himself on the final day when trying to chase down Adam Scott in Singapore.
His response to a missed chance seems to become even more aggressive and this is a course where a little bit of subtlety can go a long way.
Jimenez is a two-time winner of the event and loves his golf in the Far East.
He is set up for a big week as well on the back of a closing 66 in Singapore.
It will be no shock to see that quartet in the shake-up but I am keen on the chances of Denmark's Soren Kjeldsen, who can be backed at 33/1 with sportingbet.
Little Soren has a daunting task very much every week tackling courses of over well over 7,000 yards with steely determination.
But the playing field is much more level in Hong Kong.
The Fanling venue measures just 6,700 yards and Kjeldsen's ball-striking and ability to position himself to advantage suddenly becomes a much more prevalent factor.
He boasts three finishes inside the top 20 in the event and a repeat of his recent effort at a similarly traditional type of venue at Valderrama (T2) would make him of plenty of interest.
We will take a chance with a couple of long shots to go with Kjeldsen and they are Scott Strange and Peter Karmis.
Strange should be boosted by the efforts of fellow Aussies Scott and Stuart Appleby, who were both triumphant last week and he is always a player to take a second look at in this part of the world.
An Asian Tour veteran, one of his wins on the European Tour came in China while three of his six outings in Hong Kong have yielded top-20 performances.
His current form is not exactly blistering but there have been some encouraging rounds in Singapore and Spain recently and a return to this part of the world could just see him string 72 holes together.
I am certainly willing to take a chance at 140/1.
Karmis is an interesting player and a proven winner already.
The South African has won twice in minor events in his homeland but has progressed to his first full season on the Asian Tour and already got his head in front with victory in the Handa Singapore Classic in September.
He currently sits 25th in the Asian Order Of Merit and, although he is facing a much higher calibre of player this week, certainly seems to be on an upward curve.
A look back at some of his past form saw him finish T3 in nearby Macau in 2006 so a return to this part of the world should invoke a few positive memories at the very least.
He's chalked up at a massive 300/1 and that is worth a chance for him to take yet another significant step up the ladder.
1.5pts e.w. Soren Kjeldsen at 33/1 (sportingbet 1/4 1,2,3,4,5). Course looks ideal for the Dane and could upset a few of the big names.
1pt e.w. Scott Strange at 140/1 (bet365 1/4 1,2,3,4,5). Good record in this part of the world and glimpses of some form lately.
1pt e.w. Peter Karmis at 300/1 (Blue Square 1/4 1,2,3,4,5). Asian Tour winner this season and worth a chance at huge odds.
We picture the contenders in the final day's play at the UBS Hong Kong Open. Go to Gallery
Some choice images from the final round of the Masters at Augusta, as Bubba Watson pulled of a superb repeat victory. Go to Gallery