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Portugal Masters betting preview
By David John Last updated: 13th October 2010
Simon Dyson can build on last week's good form in Scotland with a victory at the Portugal Masters in Vilamoura, says Dave John.
There is not much between the top half-dozen in the betting for this week's Portugal Masters in what looks an open event as attentions now switch towards the Race To Dubai.
Lee Westwood will not defend his title at the Oceanico Victoria Golf course in Vilamoura as he is once again forced to rest up having been troubled by his calf injury at the Dunhill Links Championship.
That leaves Ross Fisher as market leader at around 14/1 - still a bit short for my liking despite a consistent recent run of form and a decent record in the event (two top seven finishes from three starts).
Past winner Alvaro Quiros showed a return to something like we expect last week with a top five in Scotland and has been priced up accordingly.
The Spaniard is exciting to watch and clearly enjoys smashing the ball around this venue although he has admitted his confidence has not been great this summer and he tends to make too many unforced errors to be of interest at 16/1.
I would have been keen to put up Charl Schwartzel if his price had been a little bit bigger to take into account he has missed a bit of time to fit in his honeymoon recently.
He played an event on the Sunshine Tour at the start of the month to get his eye back (shot 71-75-72) and is entitled to be sharper for that but 20/1 is not giving anything away.
Danny Willett's turn can't be far away and he impressed greatly in the Dunhill Links behind Martin Kaymer but it is fellow Yorkshireman Simon Dyson who looks primed to make an impact at the 22/1 on general offer.
He got up a real head of steam in the final round in the defence of his Dunhill Links title as he closed with a 66 to finish in a tie for fifth place.
Dyson has a proven track record of following up one good display with another straight after and he sounds in the mood to continue that trend.
Looking ahead to this event, he said at the end of his final round in Scotland: "The course is good.
"It's a long course but it favours good drivers as well, which I've done well this week.
"So hopefully if I can keep doing that, keep holing the putts and have another good week."
He finished T7 two years ago and I would not be shocked to see him go close to collecting a first win of 2010 to go with the two he bagged last year.
At a slightly bigger price, classy Swede Alex Noren seems to be putting in a late bid to reach the top 60 qualifiers for the Dubai World Championships at the end of November.
Two decent cheques recently have got him inside the top 100 and although he is still around 200,000 euros shy of his target, a place on the podium here would just about do the job.
This could be a good chance for him as he has yet to finish worse than T16 in three attempts in Vilamoura and his tournament in 2009 was wrapped up with a sparkling 62.
Noren ticks plenty of boxes and has a lot to motivate him as well so gets our vote at 33/1.
Our final selection this week is for Noren's fellow Oklahoma State University player Pablo Martin.
The Spaniard secured his second win on the European Tour in the Alfred Dunhill Championship at the back end of 2009 and has not really done anything of significance since.
Hence his 175/1 price - but I have heard a couple of rumours that he is not far off regaining his best form.
He too needs a decent event or two if he is going to make the top 60 and returning to Portugal - where he won on Tour while still an amateur - could inspire a big performance.
He was T4 going into the final round here 12 months ago before blowing out with a 77 so you get the feeling he has a score to settle on that front as well.
1.5pts e.w. Simon Dyson at 22/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3,4,5). On a roll after last week and looks ready to shine again.
1pt e.w. Alex Noren at 33/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3,4,5). Excellent record at the venue and motivated by the push for the top 60.
1pt e.w. Pablo Martin at 175/1 (bet365 1/4 1,2,3,4,5). Class act who looks capable of better than his odds suggest.
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