BMW betting preview

By Dave Tindall Last updated: 8th September 2010

I've got a habit of backing those just picked to play in the Ryder Cup but I never thought I'd be wheeling out this strategy again on Tiger Woods.

But having been handed a wildcard by Corey Pavin on Monday, I fancy Tiger to do what others have done down the years - put on a show to justify the skipper's decision.

We saw two more examples in the week just gone. One of Colin Montgomerie's wildcards, Edoardo Molinari, finished runner-up to Miguel Angel Jimenez in Switzerland while another Monty pick, Luke Donald, finished tied second at the Deutsche Bank in Boston.

Stewart Cink won the very next week after being given a wildcard in 2004 and almost repeated the feat two years later losing to Woods in a play-off straight after getting the nod from a US captain.

Woods' inclusion was probably not in doubt after his recent upturn in form but he'll still be desperate to reward Pavin's faith and Cog Hill, the scene of this week's BMW Championship, looks the perfect venue.

The course underwent a Rees Jones redesign ahead of the 2009 event here but that didn't stop Woods winning (by eight shots!) for the fifth time and second in a row.

It appears to be a recurring theme with Woods in recent times that he does his winning on courses where he's triumphed multiple times.

Take his 2009 season. Woods' wins came at Bay Hill, Memorial, Congressional, Warwick Hills, Firestone and Cog Hill.

It was his sixth win at Bay Hill, fourth at Memorial, third at Warwick Hills, seventh at Firestone and, as stated, fifth at Cog Hill.

Talk about getting positive vibes from a place he's done well at before.

So much for the past though. It's his current form we're interested in and Woods is definitely getting better week by week.

From the despair of his 78th in the Bridgestone, Woods has finished 28th in the USPGA, 12th in the Barclays and 11th in the Deutsche Bank.

He's close and on a course where he's tasted so much success he can improve on his solid efforts of the last two weeks at venues where he hadn't been as strong.

Woods has another incentive this week - to make it through to the final play-off event in Atlanta.

To do that the projections are that he'll need a top five finish this week so, again we can add another layer of incentive.

Ladbrokes opened up at a ludicrous 10/1 which got demolished but the 7/1 is still historically huge and enough to tempt me in.

I was tempted to throw the whole staking plan at him but 5pts at 7s will still produce a nice return and it leaves the opportunity for a couple more plays.

Once again, I'll bow to the Ryder Cup rule and put forward Stewart Cink.

It's pretty obvious that the mixture of joy and relief of getting a wildcard pick does good things to Cink; hence that win and second place following his two previous captain's calls.

If you're not swayed by psychological factors, there are practical ones too.

Firstly, Cink is slowly running into form.

He's had four successive top 20s in his last four starts and although they've all been between tied 15th and tied 19th it won't take much (a Ryder Cup pick perhaps!) to get him in contention.

Secondly, he has a good record at Cog Hill - fourth, seventh and 23rd (hampered by a bad back) on his last three starts. That little lot includes rounds of 64, 65 and 66

Cink has only played here a handful of times because it used to clash with the July 4th celebrations and he had always put that aside as family time.

But after shooting a stunning 29 on the front nine in 2006 he said: "I love the golf course. It's one of the best courses on Tour, and the tournament staff has been really friendly and they always do a great job. I think I'll be back here."

Take the 55/1 for Cink to pull off his wildcard response act yet again.

Finally, it was on the eve of this tournament last year that pupils widened when Greg Norman gave Adam Scott a wildcard pick for the Presidents Cup.

Scott's game was in the doldrums at the time and he hadn't done enough to reach this event - the third leg of the FedEx Cup play-offs. He'd slipped from World No.3 to No.53 and had missed 10 of his 18 cuts on the Tour up until that point.

Norman's faith had a huge impact on Scott and just a few months later he achieved what he'd never done before in his illustrious career - won on home soil.

He's since followed up that win in the Australian Open with victory in May's Texas Open and now he's in great form after finishes of ninth (Barclays) and fifth (Deutsche Bank) in the first two play-off events.

After Monday's top five, Scott said: "(I'm) really happy with where my game is at. You know, I really would love to get it going the next two events and try and get a win before the season is over."

He also revealed that it was a thrill to see Charley Hoffman win the Deutsche Bank in such style as the two had been teammates at UNLV.

"I can't say enough about Charley," said Scott. "As much as I joke about all the bad stuff he made me do at college, he made me feel very comfortable, a 17-year-old kid from Australia moving to Vegas, and he drove me around all year my freshman year because I didn't have a car or anything, so he was very nice.

"We played a lot of golf together, and it's good to see him playing up to the potential that he has."

Hoffman could well be saying the same about Scott at the end of this week and with talk of captain's picks in the air hopefully the Aussie will remember just what a big favour Norman did him 12 months ago.

As for course form, Scott was fourth here on his last visit in 2007, shooting rounds of 69-69-67-65, and having finished 10th and 6th in the Putting Average stats in his last two starts all parts of his game appear in great shape.

A winner of the Tour Championship at East Lake (another Rees Jones redesign) and third (his best ever major finish) in the 2006 USPGA at nearby Medinah, all the planets appear lined up for another Scott victory.

If Tiger comes up short, Scott is the man most likely so we'll go win only at 25/1.

Tips:

5pts win Tiger Woods at 7/1 (Ladbrokes). Improved form suggests he can reward Pavin's faith on a happy hunting ground.

1pt e.w. Stewart Cink at 55/1 (bet365 1/4 1,2,3,4,5). Has a win and a play-off loss on the back of his previous two wildcard picks.

3pts win Adam Scott at 25/1 (Blue Square, Ladbrokes). Great form, likes this neck of the woods and could be inspired by Hoffman/captain's picks.