Pebble Beach betting preview

By Dave Tindall Last updated: 8th March 2010

Tim Clark was labelled a bottler after laying up at the final hole of the recent Bob Hope Classic - a decision which went on to cost him the chance of a play-off and a long overdue first US Tour win.

Of course, had he holed the putt for birdie his solid wedge had left him his decision would have looked entirely justified although his failure to do so brought into question again his ability to keep his nerve on the greens when the pressure is on.

However, Clark isn't suddenly damaged goods just because he's suffered another near miss and his other worldwide wins (two on the European Tour and the Australian Open just over a year ago) suggest his time will come.

And this week's AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am gives him another excellent chance.

The South African has built a strong record in this event - 10th, 4th, 12th, MC, 22nd are his last five finishes - and current form suggests he'll be right up there again.

Clark has finished fourth and second in two of his last four US Tour starts and closed with a 68 to finish tied 32nd at Riviera last week.

Two of the four rounds this week will take place at Pebble Beach and with the course being readied for June's US Open the rough is higher and the fairways narrower than the other two tracks on the rotation - Spyglass Hill and Monterey Peninsula (which replaces Poppy Hills).

That is good news for Clark as he's missing very few fairways. He topped the Driving Accuracy stats at the Bob Hope two starts ago and last week was ranked second in DA.

Of course this can be a misleading stat but with so many short par fours to go at this week, it will allow Clark plenty of chance to hit wedge for his second shot and he's pretty deadly with that club in his hand.

With eight runners-up finishes to his name and numerous other top fives, Clark is definitely an each-way punter's friend and at 33/1 the place part will produce a profit if we weight stakes correctly.

But hopefully he can put all the lay-up sniping behind him and seal the deal with a first win.

My other pick from near the top of the market is 28/1 Mike Weir.

Quite simply the Canadian's record at Pebble Beach is fantastic.

Mark O'Meara was a five-time winner at Pebble to show that this is a place that can breed course specialists and Weir is very much in that category.

From 2000 his form figures here read 7-8-52-3-4-2-3-MC-14-2 and, obviously, all that's missing is a '1'.

The reduction of the tournament to 54 holes last year was certainly frustrating for Weir as it denied him a shot at leader Dustin Johnson but it didn't cause him too much stress.

Instead of fretting, Weir played with his dog on the beach and just enjoyed being in one of the most scenic spots on earth (Weir's family always rent a house in Carmel for the week).

Weir has experienced plenty of bad weather at Pebble down the years so the iffy forecast for this week is probably a plus as he'll be able to deal with it better than most. "You're hitting a lot of little knock-down shots. You're having to play the game maybe a little more and thinking less about maybe what you're doing with your swing. You've got to just kind of find a way to get it in the hole and not worry as much about technique and things like that," he said last year and that kind of golf suits him.

The left-hander has started 2010 by shooting six rounds out of seven in the 60s and he tied sixth at the Bob Hope.

Although the early 30/1 has gone, 28s is still a very fair price and one worth snapping up.

Jumping down the betting, I'm going to have a punt on Charlie Wi at 125/1.

The Korean, who was raised and went to college in California, will have good support this week and looks to be running into some nice form.

Although he missed the cut in his season-opener in Hawaii, he shot a 69 in his second round there and was then 10th at halfway at Torrey Pines before slipping to 37th.

But he kicked on again at Riviera last week and his final 54 holes of 68-69-69 were impressive and got him into the top 20.

Wi has made the cut in three of his four starts at Pebble and was tied 14th in last year's three-rounder.

One possible detail in his favour is that his worst round, a 73, came at Poppy Hills and that's the course being ditched this year (Wi had earlier shot 68 at Pebble and 69 at Spyglass Hill).

Although yet to win on Tour, he's managed a runners-up finish in each of the last three seasons and has good form in other parts of the US where the wind blows - Texas, Florida and New Orleans.

At 125/1 Wi could just be able to spring a surprise.

Californian Kevin Sutherland has opened the season strongly - 15th, 15th and 20th - and is third on the US Tour's All-Around ranking.

Sutherland has plenty of good history at Pebble Beach. He's a former winner of the Callaway Golf Pebble Beach Invitational - the non-official event held here in November - and was second in this tournament in 2007.

That runners-up finish added to five other top 25s at Pebble in his previous eight visits so this is clearly one of his most consistent events.

Sutherland, who had two second place finishes in 2008, is offered at 80/1 this week and, rest assured, a younger, trendy type would be much shorter.

Yes, his Match Play win in 2002 remains his only US Tour success but Pebble has been kind to the over 40s and Sutherland's experience on the Monterey Peninsula should serve him well.

Tips:

1.5pts e.w. Tim Clark at 33/1 (Betfred, Sportingbet 1/4 1,2,3,4,5). The door must surely open soon and the courses here suit his game.

1.5pts e.w. Mike Weir at 28/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3,4,5). Amazing record at Pebble Beach and fifth at Bob Hope recently.

1pt e.w. Charlie Wi at 125/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3,4,5). Top 15 here last year and running into some nice form on the West Coast.

1pt e.w. Kevin Sutherland at 80/1 (Sportingbet, Ladbrokes 1/4 1,2,3,4,5). Runner-up here in 2007 and not outside the top 20 in three starts this year.

RESULT:

LOSS -10pts

Dave Tindall