Northern Trust Preview

By Dave Tindall Last updated: 15th February 2012

Fred Couples reckons there are two courses on the main PGA Tour where he can still contend - Augusta National and Riviera.

And the results back his words up, especially at the famed par 71 Riviera CC in Los Angeles which hosts this week's Northern Trust Open.

As well as winning the event twice in the early 1990s, Freddie has made the top 10 here in eight of the last 14 years. Three of those (2006, 2009 and 2011) came in his last five starts and last year, aged 51, he was the halfway leader and second with a round to go before finishing seventh.

No wonder Couples says: "This is just my favourite course. I feel like I can play this course blindfolded."

There's always going to be doubts about his back and maybe the plane journey to Dubai last week wasn't ideal.

However, his performance in the Middle East did give us evidence that he can still cut it at this level. The tied 33rd is decent enough but even more so when you consider that his weekend score of five-under was better than Rory McIlroy's and Martin Kaymer's final 36 holes and equal to world number two and joint runner-up Lee Westwood.

It may be a stretch to see 'Boom Boom' winning this but I think there is definite mileage in a decent punt on a top 10 finish at 8/1 and a top five finish at 20s.

A reminder, he can boast a seventh, a third and a fourth in his last five Riviera starts while, adding in Champions Tour results, he's finished in the top 10 in his last six starts in California.

So come on Freddie. Roll back the years again, cruise your way to another good finish here and land us a nice payout.

By contrast, Dustin Johnson is a player you'd never worry about getting over the finishing line - outside of a major at least!

DJ has won five of his last 65 starts on the PGA Tour and that's one of the best strike-rates around.

After knee surgery in late November, he seems to have got the joints moving again and, after opening with a 63 at Pebble Beach last week, the big-hitting American went on to finish fifth.

With its California location and small greens, there are certain similarities between Riviera and Pebble Beach where Johnson has won twice and, indeed, good form on one has been a useful predictor for good form on the other.

Although Johnson's Riviera record can't rival the superb one he has at Pebble, it's impressive none the less.

He managed two rounds in the 60s when making the cut on debut in 2008 and fired a 66 and a 67 when 10th in 2009. It got even better in 2010 when his third place included an opening 64 which helped him lead at halfway and a closing 66 so his missed cut last year was a surprise.

Johnson was seventh in Greens In Regulation and ninth in Putting Average last week so there are some good signs in his game.

When he clicks, Johnson has the game to blow away the field; if he's a bit off, he won't contend. Therefore there is definite scope to go win only at 22/1.

Plenty of overseas players have done well at Riviera so my next punt is Ernie Els.

Back in 1995, Ernie should have won the USPGA here (I remember it well as I was on him at 14s).

But despite carrying a three-shot lead into the final round, Els stumbled and finished third, missing the Elkington-Monty play-off by two shots.

However, Els immediately fell in love with the course and two visits later (scheduling clashes have stopped him playing this event more often) 'The Big Easy' made amends by winning the then Nissan Open at Riviera in 1999.

Els has never missed a cut since and on two of his last three starts has finished third in 2007 and 10th in 2010.

Writing on his website this week, Els was positively gushing.

"For now I just need to concentrate on the week that's in front of me and that means a trip to one of my favourite golf courses in America, the Riviera Country Club in LA for the Northern Trust Open," said Els.

"I've played Riviera a lot over the years and it's one of those classic old golf courses that I could never tire of playing. Riviera is a real ball striker's golf course and I'm really comfortable with my game from tee to green.

"Not playing Pebble Beach last week gave me the opportunity to put in a lot of work on the practice ground and on the putting green. I'm raring to go and excited about bringing my range game on to this wonderful Riviera layout."

In theory the small greens here should help him, given that when he does find the putting surfaces there will be less space between ball and hole.

It's Ernie's putter that remains the worry and that's why I'm more inclined to back him in the place market at 12s.

Near misses are pretty commonplace with Els anyway and he suffered one two starts ago when losing a play-off at the Volvo Golf Champions in his native South Africa.

With three top fives (and also a 10th) in his last five starts in California, Els is clearly a force on the West Coast and I expect a big week from him.

The words "ball-striker" and "classic layout" should put Sergio Garcia fans on alert as these are the conditions the Spaniard loves.

Sergio, let's not forget, is a six-time winner on the US Tour and his resurgence over the last year suggests he's due another one.

Since rounding off his 2011 season with back-to-back wins on the European Tour, he's not quite taken the world by storm but his finishes since then read 11-24-12-5. In other words he's ticking over nicely.

Riviera looks a great place for him to put in a title bid again and he has plenty of good form here with four top 25s from his six starts, including a sixth in 2007.

Fifth in the 54-holer at Qatar last time, Sergio's putting looks far more reliable and it seems just a matter of time before everything clicks again.

Back him at 25/1 with Bodog who go six places.

Finally, I'll have an each-way punt on Japanese youngster Ryo Ishikawa.

Three years ago, aged just 18, he turned up here and announced himself to a curious and expectant US audience with this courteous opening to his press conference.

"Hello, America. I'm Ryo Ishikawa from Japan. First of all, I would like to thank Northern Trust Open for giving me this opportunity. It's like a dream."

Not surprisingly, he didn't make the cut but, on his return the following year, Ishikawa opened with a pair of 68s to sit fourth at halfway. Although he slipped to 32nd at the finish it did plant the seed that he could do well here in future.

Ishikawa is interested in taking up PGA Tour membership and has shown some promising signs that he could be a big star in America.

Last year he finished 20th in The Masters and 30th in the US Open before really turning heads in the WGC Bridgestone Invitational when finishing fourth after going out in the final group.

Most recently, Isikawa took 13th place at Torrey Pines after starting with a trio of 69s so there's certainly a case to be made for him turning up at Riviera (the US course he knows best) and making an impact.

Have an each-way punt at 125s.

TIPS

2pts Fred Couples to finish in the top 10 at 8/1 (Ladbrokes). Veteran loves this course and has made the top 10 in two of his last three visits.

1pt Fred Couples to be placed at 20/1 (Ladbrokes). Two top fives at Riviera in last five starts suggests we can play place market too.

2pts win Dustin Johnson at 22/1 (General). It can be boom or bust with DJ so go win only. Third here in 2010 when leading at halfway.

2pts Ernie Els to be placed at 12/1 (Ladbrokes). Els loves this course but putting and reputation for near misses suggests this is the best market.

1.5pts e.w. Sergio Garcia at 25/1 (Bodog 1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6). On a traditional layout that rewards ball-strikers a resurgent Sergio looks a great fit.

1pt e.w. Ryo Ishikawa at 125/1 (Stan James 1/4 1,2,3,4,5). T13th at Torrey Pines last time and fourth here at halfway in 2010.

Preview posted at 1255 GMT on 14/02/2012

Dave Tindall