So close for Bubba

By Dave Tindall Last updated: 16th August 2010

We're getting used to unusual major winners these days.

Graeme McDowell won the US Open at Pebble Beach, Louis Oosthuizen produced a commanding performance to win the Open Championship at St Andrews and going into this week's USPGA at the Pete Dye-designed Whistling Straits in Wisconsin the defending champion is Korean YE Yang who outgunned Tiger Woods down the stretch at Hazeltine 12 months ago.

So does anything unite McDowell, Oosthuizen and Yang?

And could we perhaps dig up something which also applied to past shock major winners such as Rich Beem (2002 USPGA) and Todd Hamilton (2004 Open)?

Surprisingly, the answer is yes.

It's very simple but also very significant. Quite simply, when all those players scored their major victories, they had boosted their confidence by posting a win - on either the US or European Tour - earlier that same season.

That trend has been particularly strong in the USPGA - the major most like a regular tour event. So much so that 11 of the last 12 USPGA winners had won earlier that year.

The good news is that those who do boast winning form often get overlooked by the bookies - their win often regarded as a fluke that could never be repeated in a major.

Yang, Hamilton et al have proved otherwise and it's why I'm not at all afraid to put up Bubba Watson as my headline tip.

The self-taught American has always been regarded as something of a one-off - a monster hitter who was blessed with enormous creativity.

Until this season those skills hadn't been enough to get him a win as he'd often been found lacking mentally.

But his victory in the Travelers Championship in June did wonders for his confidence and, like others before him, could give him the belief that he could go on and claim a major.

Lucas Glover had a similar reputation for being a bit of a choker but somehow held his nerve to win the US Open last year while after so many runners-up finishes who would have thought that Padraig Harrington would have turned himself into a major winning machine in 2007/8. Ditto Angel Cabrera - twice a major champion but incapable of winning regular US Tour events.

The other prejudice against Watson is that he's too wild to contend.

So how does that explain his performance in the 2007 US Open when he finished tied fifth at Oakmont.

Bubba had a nice line about his driving at Firestone last week. "I've never been a straight ball hitter. I'm used to the rough my whole career, my whole life I've been in the rough a lot, so I'm used to it."

And how about this for backing those words up - Watson ranks 1st in the PGA Tour category for hitting the green in regulation after missing the fairway.

Talking of stats, Watson is also 2nd in Driving Distance, 16th in Greens In Regulation, 1st in Birdie Average, 4th in Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders and 1st in Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders.

With Whistling Straits measuring in at a lengthy 7,507 yards and featuring four par fives it should certainly fit Watson's strengths.

He was the first round leader at Firestone last week and likes the way he's striking it so go in each-way at 125s.

Dustin Johnson famously blew up in the final round of the US Open in June but he'd played some great golf to establish a three-shot lead after round three.

He strikes you as the type who won't dwell on his mishap and a 14th at St Andrews and another top 15 at Firestone last week shows how well he's playing.

Johnson is a two-time winner of the regular US Tour event at Pebble Beach and says Whistling Straits reminds him of some of the courses he played growing up in South Carolina.

In short, if there's some water about - Whistling Straits is set on Lake Michigan - he's in his comfort zone.

Already a three-time winner on the US Tour from just 74 starts, Johnson is a special talent and I'm happy to take the 50/1.

The third player who fits the profile of having already won this year is last week's champion Hunter Mahan.

The American had already qualified having posted a win in Phoenix but that came back in February and his form had dipped after that.

But now he's playing as well as ever again and showing why he'll be a vital member of the US Ryder Cup team.

Mahan has racked up eight top 20s in the majors since failing to qualify for the 2007 Masters so he's very comfortable in elite company - as last week's win at Firestone highlighted.

His greatest strength is from the tee - he hits it both long and straight - and his No.1 ranking in the Total Driving stats should serve him extremely well at Whistling Straits.

Also second in Ball Striking (which brings hitting greens in regulation into play as well as driving), Mahan should relish this tough test and if his putter stays hot (he was ranked 1st in Putting Average last week) there's no reason why he shouldn't contend again.

Take the 40/1 (six places) with VC Bet.

After three Americans it's time to throw an Englishman into the mix and that man is Ross Fisher.

Fisher showed his credentials for golf at this level in 2009 by winning the little known Majors Cup - an award given to the player who shoots the lowest score of those who play all four rounds of all four majors.

He had genuine shots at winning both Opens (US and British) and also made the last four of the WGC-Accenture Match Play Championship in Arizona.

This year hasn't been anywhere near as good but, perhaps spurred on by the lure of the Ryder Cup, it appears that Fisher had found form again at just the right time.

June saw him finish runner-up in the BMW International Open in Munich before a second round 61 and a closing 65 powered him to victory in the 3 Irish Open two weeks ago.

A winner in Europe in each of the last four seasons, Fisher has great potential and looks the best value of the British raiders.

And now to the top end of the leaderboard.

I wouldn't back Tiger with stolen money right now while I'm finding it hard to cope with young Rory McIlroy at 18s given that I tipped him each-way at 80s in this event last year when he was third.

But Phil Mickelson at 15s? Hmmm.

Lefty is having a curate's egg of a season. He was a brilliant winner at Augusta but much of his form in 2010 has been patchy.

However, he did contend heavily at the US Open, finishing tied fourth and was also runner-up in another elite event at Quail Hollow.

But there's not getting away from the fact that he was appalling in the final round at Firestone and not very good either in round three so even the master of the quick turnaround has it all to do.

True, Mickelson was just two shots out of the play-off at Whistling Straits in 2004 but that was the year he won the Masters (his first major win) and also finished runner-up in the US Open. Heck, he almost even won the Open at Troon (finishing just one shot out of a play-off) so he was playing out of his skin in the majors that season and it was no surprise he should keep it going at Whistling Straits.

He also revealed a couple of illness and injury concerns in Tuesday's press conference so overall he fails to make the staking plan.

Instead, I'll stick to the theme of winners in 2010 by plumping for Adam Scott.

It's amazing that his majors record is so poor but it's worth noting that the USPGA provided his best finish - third at Medinah in 2006 - while he was also tied ninth at Whistling Straits in 2004.

Another point of interest is that his biggest win came on another Pete Dye design when he landed the 2004 Players Championship.

Check out the photo galleries and it's also easy to see a definite resemblance between Whistling Straits and New South Wales Golf Club where Scott finally posted his first win on home soil by landing December's Australian Open.

Like Whistling Straits, NSW is described as a "links style" layout without being a true one and maybe Scott is more suited to this more cosmetic look.

When he captured the Texas Open in mid-May he looked like the player who once held the number three position in the world rankings.

He's gone a little flat - due to his pesky putter - but a tied ninth at Firestone last week which included a closing 67 sets up him nicely.

Scott, who turned 30 last month, is seeing players win majors he probably thought and still thinks he has the beating off.

This could be the time it all clicks in a major and if his putting holds up he has the long game to score victory at an attractive 60/1.

Steve Stricker is being put forward as the local hero although he lives two and a half hours from Whistling Straits so it's not as if he plays the course more than anyone else.

However, it sounds like the pressure is getting to him a little bit and he's been pointing out that being the local favourite can be a burden too.

So let's end by having a punt on the other Wisconsin golfer in the field - Jerry Kelly.

Kelly's personality is much more outgoing so you get the impression he could ride the wave of expectation better than Stricker.

He's good in the wind, is a similar type of player to three of those who finished in the top six back in 2004 (DiMarco, Leonard and Riley) and warmed up for this event with an excellent final round 64 at Turning Stone which hoisted him up to third place.

"I'm excited to be here," Kelly said on Monday after a practice session on the range, "and I'm really excited to bring a decent game in."

Kelly can boast a win (on a Pete Dye track), two second places and four top threes in the last five seasons and let's complete the each-way staking plan by having an each-way nibble at 250/1. He is 300s with a couple of firms but I'm keen to go with the bookies who pay out to six each-way places.

Others I considered were KJ Choi, Ben Crane, Heath Slocum, Jim Furyk, Martin Kaymer, Ernie Els and, to be honest, the list goes on.

It's a wide open week but I'm hoping the strong stat about US PGA winners having already posted a win earlier in the season holds up once again.

Tips:

1pt e.w. Bubba Watson at 125/1 (bet365, Victor Chandler, Paddy Power 1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6). 11 of the last 12 USPGA winners had won earlier in the season. Travelers champ Watson has skills to take victory.

1pt e.w. Dustin Johnson at 50/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6). Brilliant for 54 holes in US Open at Pebble and likes the look of this track.

1.5pts e.w. Hunter Mahan at 40/1 (Victor Chandler 1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6). Posted second win of season at Firestone last week and has game for the majors.

1pt e.w. Ross Fisher at 55/1 (Stan James 1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6). Recent win in Ireland suggests he can reproduce the excellence he showed in the 2009 majors.

1pt e.w. Adam Scott at 60/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6). Has won on courses with links to Whistling Straits. Big chance if his putting holds up.

0.5pts e.w. Jerry Kelly at 250/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6). Local Wisconsin man finished like a train last week and could ride huge home support.