WGC Bridgestone betting preview

By Dave Tindall Last updated: 3rd August 2010

He couldn't win at Augusta, Pebble Beach and St Andrews - courses where he had dominated before.

So can Tiger Woods finally post a first win of 2010 at the course which has brought him more success than any other?

That's one of the big plotlines at this week's WGC Bridgestone Invitational at Firestone where Woods has won no less than seven times and is unbeaten since 2004.

The layers have him at 9/2 (the early 5s was taken) and that will split opinion. Fervent Tiger backers will be all over it while those who won't touch him with a bargepole right now will be happy to pass.

I'm very much in the latter camp.

With Phil Mickelson outside the top 20 six times in his last seven visits, Lefty doesn't cry out to be backed either while Lee Westwood looks a little undercooked after hardly picking up a club since finishing second at St Andrews. Both could go to number one this week but even that incentive doesn't entice me in.

Firestone, in Akron, Ohio, is a course which requires experience and a strong trend when looking at past results is that there a very few examples of first or even second timers to the venue doing well.

So I am going to nail my colours to the established stars and my first pick is Jim Furyk.

The American, for him, is having a maverick year.

Rather than just reliably contending and racking up top 10s, Jimbo has been dealing in the extremities mixing wins with missed cuts.

The best example of his new-found 'wild' streak was shooting 80-76 at Augusta before winning at Hilton Head the very next week.

To be fair, Furyk has settled down since then and has two top 10s in his last three regular US Tour starts.

Last week he finished tied ninth at the Greenbrier and hit just about every green in regulation during a bogey-free final 36 holes.

Tiger has done it several different ways (no sniggering at the back) but hitting fairways and greens is rewarded on this golf course and Furyk has shown it in the past.

His numerous starts at Firestone have produced a second, a third, a fourth and two top sixes and the runner-up finish was after an extraordinary seven-hole play-off against Tiger.

Talking about the course, Furyk gives us an insight as to why he does so well here: "I always like coming here. It's an old, traditional golf course, kind of goes back and forth. Got to hit some shots, got to put the ball in the fairway," he said two years ago.

"It's always been one of my Top 5 courses on Tour, as far as ones that I really like. I've played well here in the past. I always get excited about coming here, and I enjoy teeing it up.

"Roundish style greens, usually a lot of slope from back to front. It reminds me of where I grew up. I grew up in Pennsylvania with golf courses built in the same era. I appreciate the fact that it's not just tee it up and let it fly on every hole. It's not mindless where you can just bomb it and hit it and go find it again."

Furyk is due a win here and in a season where he's got the habit back this could be the year.

Blue Square go 35/1 and offer the added bonus of going 1/3 1,2,3,4,5 instead of the usual 1/4.

Another player with a strong record here is Zach Johnson.

He's finished between ninth and 16th in four of his last five visits and it could have been much better than that.

Speaking in 2008, Johnson reflected: "Last year (2007) I think I finished bogey-double and finished 9th, so it was a bad finish. And then the previous year I believe I made a 9 on 9. I don't know what I finished, but it was close to Top 10 again."

Johnson also backs up the idea that experience is key.

"The more and more you play this course, the better off you are, especially with knowing where to hit it around the greens," he said in 2008.

To challenge on what is a long par 70 (7,400 yards), Johnson says he has to put the ball in the fairway but he's done that superbly well this year and sits seventh in Driving Accuracy.

Add in his 26th place in Putting Average and he has the skills to do well here, as he's shown.

Johnson has a win and two other top 25s in his last five starts on American soil and is nicely rested after finishing down the field at St Andrews.

Well, nicely rested in a golf sense as Mrs Johnson has just given birth to their second son.

However, his Twitter updates indicate that he's positively glowing rather than moaning about lack of sleep so maybe this could be another one for followers of the 'nappy factor' which reckons a newborn has a galvanising effect on a golfer's fortunes.

If that sounds wishy-washy you certainly can't argue with Johnson's win rate.

He's had six wins over the last four seasons, including his victory at Augusta, and doesn't really get the credit for being one of the finest closers on the US Tour.

When Johnson gets into contention he's often able to raise his game so we're far from just playing for the each-way money when backing him at 90/1.

The general rule of thumb when players shoot an extraordinary round is to expect them to come back down to earth with a crash.

It's usually the next day but in Stuart Appleby's case it will be the following week after his amazing 59 came in the final round, giving him victory at the Greenbrier Classic.

David Duval followed his winning 59 at the 1999 Bob Hope with an opening 74 in Phoenix but while DD showed a rare display of emotion when he carded his, Appleby's reaction was somewhat underwhelming - a clenched fist but no histrionics.

That level-headed response suggests he won't be away with the fairies this week and instead his 59 should just fill him with confidence.

But there is another X factor which could spur Appleby on this week.

In Tuesday's press conference, Appleby revealed: "It's great to be here. It's ten years this year, this week, of the tournament that I met Ashley (his wife who hails from nearby Canton).

"This is definitely an extended family this week. Every player has one of those at one tournament or another throughout the year, but this is definitely mine.

"I know the course very well. I've had some good performances here. I think it was a couple years ago I finished second. I think Vijay won that year. I feel like a local from that extent."

As well as being runner-up in 2008, Appleby has a fifth and a ninth while even when he finished tied 51st last year he still managed two rounds under par.

Before his heroics at Greenbrier, Appleby had shot in the 60s in 12 of his previous 18 rounds so he's been playing well for a while and, at 100/1, it's worth chancing that he shines again in a tournament and area which mean a lot to him.

Finally, I'll go for another experienced pro in Steve Stricker.

Due to his long spell in the doldrums, Stricker wasn't eligible for this event for most of the last decade but last year he improved upon two modest efforts with a tied sixth.

A tweet from AP writer Doug Ferguson is also revealing.

- Just reminded Stricker of what he said 3 years ago at Firestone: "Feels like we're playing a major every week." Now? "This is kind of nice."

In other words, he's much happier to be here now and far more mentally prepared to challenge.

Stricker shot 26-under to win at John Deere on his last US start while he also took victory at Riviera earlier this year.

There is one final clue to a big performance from Stricker.

When (successfully) tipping him at 16/1 to win at Riviera earlier this season, I wrote: "One interesting little pattern in Stricker's form is how well he does after two weeks off - the position he finds himself in again here.

"Stricker won at Colonial last year after a fortnight's break and repeated the trick when winning the John Deere Classic after another nice rest."

Well, lo and behold, both his wins this year have come after two weeks off.

You'll have guessed where this is going. Stricker is teeing it up here after, yes, two weeks off!

Take the 30/1.

Tips:

2pts e.w. Jim Furyk at 35/1 (Blue Square 1/3 1,2,3,4,5 general). Big fan of this course, two wins this year and under-the-radar ninth last week.

1pt e.w. Zach Johnson at 90/1 (bet365 1/4 1,2,3,4,5 general). Knows how to win and has a history of playing well at this venue.

1pt e.w. Stuart Appleby at 100/1 (bet365, totesport, Betfred 1/4 1,2,3,4,5 general). Kept calm despite amazing 59 to win last week and strong ties with this event.

1.5pts e.w. Steve Stricker at 30/1 (bet365, Betfred 1/4 1,2,3,4,5 general). T6th last year, twice a winner in 2010 and goes well when fresh.