Doral betting preview

By Dave Tindall Last updated: 11th March 2010

At the recent Waste Management Phoenix Open, US golf blogger Stephanie Wei posted a picture of Anthony Kim practising whilst on the phone.

My first reaction was to view it as 'evidence' that Kim just doesn't give the game the attention his talent deserves.

His weekend flop in Phoenix having got himself into the lead seemed to confirm those suspicions and I expected Kim to once more fail to justify the hype at last week's Honda Classic.

Well, he did give the doubters more fuel when shooting a third round 73 on 'moving day' but the bottom line was he ended up finishing the tournament in second place after 68-64 and 67 on the other three days.

"I'm still just trying to put four rounds together," said Kim in interview later. "I'm playing well, I'm thinking well, I have a good attitude and hopefully I can keep practising hard and keep improving."

It made me return to that picture and have a re-think. Firstly, well at least he was practising rather than just talking on the phone. And, secondly, practising one-handed is actually a very good short-game drill (although most experts normally don't recommend you have a mobile phone in the other hand).

Looking ahead to Doral, Kim is certainly full of beans: "Well, if I keep hitting it this good, it's going to be great for my game because it's a longer golf course. I'm reading the greens real well. My caddie and I are doing a good job of reading the grain, and that's the first thing that you have to look at."

Kim, like Camilo Villegas last week, is due. Like the Colombian before the Honda, he's still winless since two victories in 2008 and, on a Doral course which yields birdies, he should be in his element.

Snap up the 35/1.

Another player I like from last week's top five is Vijay Singh.

It's easy to dismiss the Fijian as a potential winner due to his putting but here's what he said about his performance with the flatstick last week.

"There's a lot of positives on the putter," said Singh. "I think I feel really comfortable with it. That's the best I've felt on the putting green for a long, long time this week. So there's a lot of great signs that the more I get used to the putter, the more I start getting into contention."

Delusional?

Well, all the great players are. If Singh had stressed about his putting the same way we punters do he probably wouldn't have won anywhere near the 34 US Tour victories he has.

Instead we should focus on the fact that Singh was tied second for greens in regulation last week - a key stat for success at Doral and confirmation that he's striking it well again now his injuries have cleared up.

Singh has a bunch of wins in Florida and a series of top five finishes at Doral.

He was runner-up two years ago, the second time he's occupied that position, and he can also point to two third places and a fifth.

When Singh is being talked up it's usually along the lines of 'it wasn't that long ago that he was world number one (for 32 weeks across 2004/5)'. But why not say that only 18 months ago he won the US Money List and was being handed the FedEx Cup trophy after racking up three wins in five events.

After looking Villegas' biggest challenger for most of last week, Singh is clearly on his game and, once in form, he's proven over the years that he can carry it over to the next tournament.

Snap up the 40s.

So far this season we've seen two players defend their titles (Geoff Ogilvy at Kapalua and Dustin Johnson at Pebble Beach) and two events won by former runners-up (Steve Stricker at Riviera and Villegas at PGA National).

In other words, despite fears that the new grooves ruling would cause chaos for punters, good old course form is as strong as ever.

Therefore, I'm going to put up last year's runner-up Nick Watney as my third tip.

The American made Mickelson sweat down the stretch last year and could so easily have taken the tournament to a play-off.

He hasn't quite hit his full stride in 2010 but he finished ninth when defending at Torrey Pines and shot 63-69-69 over the final 54 holes at Phoenix on his most recent start.

Watney is a force in Florida. In his last four starts in the Sunshine State he can boast a second (here), a fourth and a 12th.

As someone who hits it long, finds lots of greens and makes plenty of birdies, Watney is a good fit for this course and the 45/1 looks a fair price.

At much bigger odds, Jerry Kelly could be interesting

Kelly usually flies under the radar but he does seem to boast plenty of good credentials for a 110/1 shot.

After a slow start to the season, Kelly found some form in the Mayakoba Golf Classic (tied 28tth) and improved to tied 12th in last week's Honda Classic after opening 69-65.

At the halfway mark, Kelly said: "I'm really enjoying the way I'm playing. All I can do is go out there and try and get the job done. My body feels good finally."

If, like Singh, he is fit again then he deserves respect.

Kelly was seventh on his last appearance at Doral, has previously finished fourth and it was less than 12 months ago that he posted the most recent of his three US Tour wins.

I mentioned earlier that hitting greens is important at Doral so for my final pick I'm going straight to the top of the greens in regulation stats.

And there you'll find Geoff Ogilvy sitting in top spot.

The Aussie appears to have gone quiet since winning the season-opening SBS Championship with his new Titleist clubs but that was due to taking some time off following the birth of his third child.

On his return he lost in the second round of the Match Play and then finished down the field in Phoenix - a tournament where he usually struggles.

But Doral is right up his street.

He ended Tiger Woods' seven-event win streak when winning here two years ago and the year before he was third.

Having already won this season on a course (Kapalua) where he's triumphed before, let's back Ogilvy to repeat the trick.

At 28/1 he's the biggest price of the leading contenders and, on the evidence of the last few years, is probably the one you can trust most (Ogilvy has won two WGC titles) in elite fields.

It means we'll go for the jugular and play him 'win only'.

Tips:

1.5pts e.w. Anthony Kim at 35/1 (William Hill 1/4 1,2,3,4,5). Runner-up last week and close to putting four rounds together. Course suits.

1pt e.w. Vijay Singh at 40/1 (Betfred 1/4 1,2,3,4,5). Fit again and bounced back to form with T4 at Honda. Fine Doral record.

1pt e.w. Nick Watney at 45/1 (bet365 1/4 1,2,3,4,5). Runner-up last year and showed signs in Phoenix that he's ready to shine again.

1pt e.w. Jerry Kelly at 110/1 (bet365 1/4 1,2,3,4,5). Played well last week and seventh on last start at Doral. Underrated.

2pts win Geoff Ogilvy at 28/1 (Stan James). Knows how to beat elite fields, champion here in 2008 and already a winner in 2010.