Phoenix betting preview

By Dave Tindall Last updated: 8th March 2010

Brian Gay did us two huge favours last year when winning at Hilton Head and TPC Southwind.

Sundays are normally stress-packed when you've got a player in contention but Gay turned those final rounds into victory parades after winning the Verizon Heritage by a ridiculous 10 shots and the St Jude Classic by five.

He's more of a marked man than he was (he went off at 100/1 at Hilton Head) but the 35/1 available at this week's Waste Management Phoenix Open is similar to his SP of 40s in Memphis.

The key with Gay last year was spotting when he was coming into form and then finding a course where he was likely to peak.

At Hilton Head he arrived at a course where he'd previously had a fine record on the back of some solid early season form and a T26 at Houston where the course was too long for him.

And before winning at Southwind he'd signed off at Colonial with a final round 64.

So far in 2010, Gay has made the top 25 in all four of his strokeplay starts and at the WGC Accenture Match Play he made it to the last 16 despite not liking the course.

Asked if it set up well for him, Gay responded: "Not really good at all. It's a long way, brick hard. It's just like throwing a math equation in the fairway, trying to figure out what is uphill, downhill, where to land it, where is it going to release to. So it was a lot of work."

It was also the first time he'd played match play since an amateur.

But a strokeplay event at TPC Scottsdale will be much more in his comfort zone.

Gay plays here every year and also improves his performance every year.

Starting in 2005, Gay's results read 71st, 33rd, 23rd, 17th, 6th so if that trend continues we're in the money.

No-one hit more fairways at Scottsdale last year than Gay and on the 2010 Driving Accuracy stats he sits fifth.

Add in his second place ranking on both 2010 putting stats (Putting Average and Putts Per Round) and it could prove a pretty lethal combination.

Take that 35/1.

The second player on my list is already a winner in 2010 and he also has a runners-up finish on his resume at TPC Scottsdale.

So why is the man in question, Ryan Palmer, 125/1?

I'm not quite sure to be honest.

Yes, his results since that win at the Sony Open read T42, MC, T70 but they need closer inspection.

In the Bob Hope he shot 67-64-69 over his middle three rounds, then at Torrey Pines he posted one of the rounds of the day on the harder South Course - a four-under 68 - before losing it in the second round on the easier North.

At Pebble on his last start, he shot 71-70-70 so, again, hardly cause for concern.

Palmer's second place here came in 2006 when JB Holmes powered to a stunning seven-shot win but it's been forgotten that Palmer actually led with nine to play before a horror show at the 15th broke him.

This is a course where he can excel and after deciding not to go to Cancun last week he is nice and fresh.

On the 2010 stats, Palmer is 14th for Greens In Regulation, 12th for Putting Average and 4th for Birdie Average so his game is good and this three-time Tour winner from Texas who, as you might expect, has an affinity for the Bermuda greens he gets to putt on this week, could make a mockery of those 125/1 odds.

Scottsdale residents have turned local knowledge to good advantage here in recent years with locals Jonathan Kaye (2004) and Aarron Baddeley (2007) both making this event their first win on Tour.

If that three-year cycle is to repeat, big-hitting Bubba Watson could be your man.

Watson, who grew up in Florida, now makes Scottsdale his home and has had two pretty good stabs at this event - 8th in 2007 and 25th last year.

On his last start in the desert he was runner-up at the Bob Hope and, the sensitive soul that he is, it might have been the fallout from that event (he was roundly criticised for laying up at the par five 14th) that has led to a couple of missed cuts since.

Still, Bubba is a rare talent and with the crowd behind him this could be his chance to turn all those near misses (he has three second places on the US Tour) into a win.

It might be a rollercoaster - he admits that the par five 15th troubles him and two 6s there last year prove the point (useful knowledge for Betfair punters) - but Watson has the shots to pull it off if he can just keep his calm.

At 100/1 he's well worth a play.

Another Scottsdale resident I'm going to punt is Aussie Michael Sim.

Sim lives by the second hole at nearby Grayhawk (host course for the Frys.com Open) and at the back end of 2008 he finished tied seventh there after getting a sponsor's invite.

A four-time winner on the Nationwide Tour (three of them coming in a fabulous 2009 season), Sim is now out to crack the full Tour and he's already gone close when finishing tied second at Torrey Pines.

Sim felt he wasn't swinging great that week - he also said he'd never felt so nervous which could have explained it - so it's testament to his short game that he could still go so close to victory.

He's currently sixth in putting and also reckons his swing is back on track after some work with coach David Milne.

If he can put it all together, Sim could strike at 80/1.

Finally, the last time he teed it up in a strokeplay desert event, Matt Kuchar finished like a train to just miss out on victory at the Bob Hope.

However, his second place forms part of a golden run of form which shows just two finishes outside the top 20 since September 2009, one of those being his WD at Pebble.

That sequence includes a win, a second and a third and Kuchar said at last week's WGC that he was nearly fully fit again after illness forced him out at Pebble.

This event didn't use to be on his schedule but after entering late last year due to him feeling in good form he went and finished sixth.

Kuchar has some excellent history in the desert - he was also runner-up in Las Vegas at the back end of 2008 - and in his current form he gets the final place in my staking plan at 40/1.

Tips:

1.5pts e.w. Brian Gay at 35/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3,4,5). Progressive form figures here (T6 last year) and playing well again.

0.75pts e.w. Ryan Palmer at 125/1 (bet365, Hills 1/4 1,2,3,4,5). A winner already this year and led here with nine to play in 2006.

0.75pts e.w. Bubba Watson at 100/1 (bet365, Ladbrokes 1/4 1,2,3,4,5). Scottsdale resident, hugely talented and T2 on last desert start.

1pt e.w. Michael Sim at 90/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3,4,5). Also lives in Scottsdale now and he too is a runner-up in 2010. Knows how to win.

1pt e.w. Matt Kuchar at 40/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3,4,5). Plays well in the desert (6th here last year) and great record over last 6 months.

RESULT:

LOSS -10pts

Dave Tindall