Northern Trust betting preview

By Dave Tindall Last updated: 8th February 2010

I've always thought previous course form was the best indicator to finding the winner at Riviera. And I'll stick with that policy for this week's Northern Trust Open.

One man who's proved the theory in recent years is Rory Sabbatini.

The South African was a runner-up at 'The Riv' in 2002 and in 2006 went one better when taking the title by a shot. He's franked that form with a ninth in 2007 and a sixth last year and with six top 15s in this event in the last decade he deserves the tag of 'course specialist'.

Sabbatini kicked his season off with a second place finish at Kapalua and poured in 27 birdies - more than anyone else - during his four rounds in Hawaii.

He continued his hot pace with another 19 birdies at the following week's Sony but after getting himself in a great position to challenge for the title he slipped from third to tied 39th after a poor final round.

It's easy to dismiss that as a blip though - especially as he closed out Kapalua with a stunning 10-under 62.

With the greens at Riviera lightning fast, conditions look perfect for Sabbatini to get on the birdie trail again and my insider at the course said that proved the case in his practice round on Monday.

"It's a course that every time I step up on the tee I feel completely comfortable with the tee shot. Every hole visually is appealing to me," says Sabbatini of Riviera and he looks in excellent shape for another crack at one of his favourite tournaments.

Snap up the 35/1.

John Rollins is always a man to consider in this part of the world and he's my second pick at 55/1.

In the last four seasons, Rollins has had three runners-up finishes and two further top fives on the West Coast Swing and another looks on the cards after his solid start to the campaign.

The American has finished 14th, 8th and 20th in his three events so far and this week's tournament represents another obvious chance for Rollins to shine.

"Riviera is a great golf course. I love coming here. It seems to fit my game. It's kind of a fader's paradise, and I like to work the ball left-to-right," says Rollins, who was fifth here in 2006 and also made the top 20 in both 2007 and 2008.

Although it came later in the year, he again showed his West Coast prowess when winning at Reno back in August (his third US Tour win) so backing a pretty in-form Rollins at 55s on the 'left' side of the United States looks a smart move.

Phil Mickelson used to have a poor record at Riviera but has put that right in spectacular style with a play-off loss and two wins in the last three years.

Hoever, having successfuly backed him at 18/1 last year I'm finding it hard to take the top price 7s.

So let's switch to the man one place below him in the world rankings, Steve Stricker, who is available at more than twice the price.

Stricker had also struggled in this event until recently but he turned that around with an 11th in 2008 before finishing runner-up to Mickelson last year when leading going into the final couple of holes.

One interesting little pattern in Stricker's form is how well he does after two weeks off - the position he finds himself in again here.

Stricker won at Colonial last year after a fortnight's break and repeated the trick when winning the John Deere Classic after another nice rest.

The man from Wisconsin has kicked off his campaign with a 10th and a third in the two Hawaii events and after closing with a 65 at the Sony he said: "I can go home the next couple of weeks with a lot of confidence."

The two-week break theory played out again in this event last year when he finished second so, refreshed after another 14-day gap, Stricker should be in perfect shape to try and post a fourth win in just 14 starts.

For a world number three with so many recent wins and a near-miss at the course last year, 12/1 might be a truer reflection of his chances.

We can get 16/1 so dive in.

Former winners Robert Allenby and Charles Howell came close to getting my final pick, as did KJ Choi.

But with the greens running ultra-fast and true I'm going to go for a man who has won two recent majors on such surfaces.

Angel Cabrera, the current Masters champion and 2007 US Open winner, is a regular here and, like Mickelson and Stricker, has taken his time to learn what's required.

But last year he shot double figures under par for the first time and finished just five off the winner (and that after taking a six at the 17th).

The big Argentine loves to smash his driver from left to right so has the ideal ball flight for Riviera and has started the season brightly - 68-68-70-71 for a top 10 at Kapalua and 66-68-73-68 for a top 25 at the Sony.

'El Pato' was 12th and 7th in the putting stats in those two events which means his flatstick - often an Achilles heel - is working well so all looks in place for Cabrera to become the sixth International winner of this event in the last 10 years.

Like Rollins, he can be backed at 55/1.

Tips:

1.5pts e.w. Rory Sabbatini at 35/1 (totesport 1/4 1,2,3,4,5). Can boast a win and a second here and looks in great shape for another title bid.

1pt e.w. John Rollins at 55/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3,4,5). Loves the course, in good form and always a threat early season on the West Coast.

2pts e.w. Steve Stricker at 16/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3,4,5). Runner-up last year and a three-time winner in 2009. Price seems very fair.

1pt e.w. Angel Cabrera at 55/1 (bet365, Boylesports 1/4 1,2,3,4,5). Course set-up should be ideal and finished just five back here in 2009. Putting well.

RESULT:

Stricker WON 16/1

PROFIT+33pts

Dave Tindall