And in his current form, a fifth win at Arnold Palmer's tournament is more than likely.

But there are reasons to believe that this isn't a mortgage job - namely his finishes here for the last four years.

After failing to go five straight when finishing way down in 46th in 2004, Woods could only finish 23rd in 2005 and 20th in 2006.

Normal service appeared to have been resumed last year when Tiger opened with a 64 but, looking strangely fallible, he fell away and a final round 76 left him outside the top 20 again.

With par reduced to 70 last year, Woods had to approach some of the longer holes as testing par fours rather than easy par fives and, as we know, Tiger's edge over the field definitely increases when there's four '5s' on the scorecard.

I fear the world number one, it would be ridiculous not to, so will slightly tinker with the staking plan in places but Woods at 5/4 at the current Bay Hill doesn't appeal.

The 25/1 for defending champ Vijay Singh does get my interest though.

The Fijian had threatened to win this tournament for years before finally prevailing in 2007.

That win added to three second places (the most recent in 2005), a fourth and six top 10s and was the 15th time in a row he'd made the cut and finished the tournament under par.

Singh, a Florida resident, just loves playing in what is now his home state and in his last 21 starts there he's recorded three wins, four seconds, a third, a fifth and six other top 15s.

The doubt some punters will have is whether Singh is still a competitive force capable of winning.

Well, in his last three starts on American soil he's made the quarter-finals of the World Match Play and finished runner-up at Pebble Beach. True, he blew victory on the Monterrey Peninsula but 99.9% of golfers have thrown away last round leads.

Singh deserves a fair chunk of the staking plan so we'll back him each-way at 25s but also have a prudent point 'without Woods' at 18s.

It's always a pretty decent plan to have some Aussies on your side in the Florida events.

There were six Australians in the top 20 at the PODS Championship last week and four in the top seven at the Honda Classic before that.

Geoff Ogilvy, the 2006 US Open champion, made a welcome return to form with a top 10 last week and it could pay to follow him at Bay HIll.

Ogilvy has looked out of sorts for a while but dropped a hint of better things to come when carding a 69 in round one at Riviera.

Describing his game as "tidy" and "nice", it therefore came as something of a shock when he carded a 77 in round two to miss his third straight cut of the season.

A first round exit at the World Match Play was easier to brush aside but it was still a relief to Ogilvy to finally get his season going at the PODS.

The Aussie has progressive form figures at Bay Hill - 36th 2005, 26th 2006, 14th 2007 - and it's perhaps no surprise that his best performance came on last year's par 70 as he plays tough to score on tracks extremely well as he proved with his US Open win.

He was ranked third on the All-Around stats last week which is hugely promising and at his classy best he's a match for almost anyone.

Keep faith with the Ogilvy revival and back him at 66s to add to an impressive record in Florida which shows 12 top 20s from his last 19 starts in the region, including three top threes in his last nine.

Rodney Pampling just failed to land us some more each-way profits at the PODS but his tied eighth place (just one shot out of tied second) kept him on an upward curve after his run to the last 16 in the World Match Play.

Bay Hill, of course, is the scene of Pampling's finest hour after he saw off a stellar field in 2006 to post his one and only US Tour win.

"I enjoy the golf course. It's one where you can't just get up there and smash it. You have to work your way around," says Pampling.

"It's nice to get back here to a golf course where you can think your way around. It makes you concentrate out there all day long."

Pampling, who also made the top 25 in 2002 and 2004, couldn't make the cut last year but without the pressures of being the defending champ he should hopefully be prominent again.

With the greens not in the greatest of condition this week, it should level it out a little in favour of those not in such great form with the flatstick and that will help Pampling, who was fourth in greens in regulation last week but outside the top 50 in putting.

Take the 70/1.

What odds would you make a player with the following credentials? Third at Pebble Beach last month, 12th and 14th (last week) in his last two starts and recent Bay Hill form which includes a fifth in 2005 and another top 20 in 2006.

The answer is 200/1.

That's because the man in question is Corey Pavin, who most believe is an old-timer with his best days long behind him.

However, the former US Open champ, was a winner on Tour as recently as July 2006 and has hinted in recent press conferences that he's making a bid to make the US Ryder Cup team.

A small bet at 200s is the order of the day but the 12/1 for a top 10 is decent insurance.

Preview posted at 1250GMT on 11/03/2008